Rise of Kingdoms: Saving gold keys

Here it is. The answer to the age-old question. The question that shows up at least once a day on Reddit and Discord: "should I save my gold keys and open them all at once?". The assumption being that opening gold keys together in a batch gives more/better rewards than opening them one at a time. In this post we will test whether that is true. As always, you can find the code and dataset for this analysis in my GitHub repo here. Samples and expected distributions We'll begin with a quick primer on expected/population distributions and how they relate…

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Rise of Kingdoms: Show Your Love Event

In a previous post I discussed the point requirements of the last holiday event (Valentine's Day - Pledge of Thorns). Here, I will do the same analysis with the new holiday event (Show Your Love) to confirm those findings. I'll be drawing comparisons between the two events throughout. The supporting code and data for this analysis can be found here. Data collection for event I began by using 800 items (Carnations) and recorded how many points each item provided. Below (left) you can see the frequency distribution of the points provided for each item, as well as the distribution from…

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Rise of Kingdoms: Holiday Events

Rise of Kingdoms holiday events come around every few months. The last one involved collecting ornaments for the Christmas tree, and the current Valentine's Day event requires collection of roses. Using a rose gives you points, and you need a certain number of points to complete the event. We know how many points are needed in total to complete the event (2888 in the case of Valentine's Day), but the problem is that each rose gives you a varying number of points due to critical hits. For example, using one rose could give you 1 point or it could give…

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Rise of Kingdoms: Commander Pairings

Rise of Kingdoms (iOS, Android) has many possible primary/secondary commander pairings, some of which are amazing, while others are absolutely terrible. Tier lists for commander pairings have been discussed by many people on YouTube, but I wanted to find a way to condense the information in those lengthy videos into a more digestible form. The goal was to create a quick and easy-to-use resource that could answer the question: "which commander works best with ____?" I ended up creating D3.js force-directed graphs to show viable pairings between primary and secondary commanders, along with the rank for each pairing. One neat thing about…

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Overwatch Data Visualization

In a previous post I talked about an Overwatch dataset I've been collecting from my ranked games. Before running any statistical analysis on the Overwatch data, it is usually a good idea to explore and visualize the dataset. This helps us get a general sense of data patterns, which can help generate hypotheses that can then be tested with more formal statistical models. My own personal philosophy about data visualization/exploration is to approach it with targeted questions of interest. It is all too easy to fall down the rabbit hole of plotting absolutely everything, without a sense of what the…

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Overwatch Ranked Data

I started playing Overwatch towards the end of Season 2 and I thought it would be interesting to start collecting data from my own ranked games. The goal was to maintain a dataset of Overwatch ranked data that I could analyze to better understand how skill rating (SR) changes as a function of, for example, win/loss streaks and medals. I have made the dataset public in case anyone wants to run their own statistics or visualizations. However, I only have a few seasons worth of data as I took a break from the game after Season 4, and picked it up again…

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